Ted Cruz's "as a consequence": a real crime drop, an inflated number

Verdict: mixed. Truth score 0.35. Ted Cruz's murder figure is close to the FBI's; his overdose figure is inflated by about six points.

The three words joining them to border policy — "as a consequence" — are a causal claim the agencies supplying the numbers decline to make.

On the P.A.S. Report (3 September 2026, at 26:17), Senator Ted Cruz says border crossings fell 99% and "as a consequence" the nationwide murder rate dropped 20% and overdose deaths dropped 20%. No source is cited.

The steelman is strong. FBI data released 14 August 2026 show 2025 murder offenses down 18.1% and the murder rate down 18.5% — the largest one-year decline since the series began in 1936, with a rate of 4.1 per 100,000. Jeff Asher's Real-Time Crime Index read about 20%. Overdose deaths fell for a third consecutive year, to 69,973. The border reduction is real and very large.

What fails: the overdose decline was 13.9%, not 20%, and no published window yields 20% — the ~35-37% figure only appears if you measure from the 2022-23 peak, a window spanning the previous administration. Both declines began in 2023. Adam Gelb of the Council on Criminal Justice: "The homicide drop is historic and crystal clear. But right now, what's driving it is about as clear as a glass of milk." And the mechanism runs backwards on the evidence: Texas 2013-2022 homicide convictions ran 2.2 per 100,000 for illegal immigrants versus 3.0 for the native-born; 85% of fentanyl is seized at ports of entry with U.S. citizens over 80% of trafficking convictions; Canada's opioid deaths fell 23% in 2025 without U.S.-style enforcement.

Nobody has established what caused the murder decline — including the people arguing against Cruz.