A racial fertility ranking on Timcast IRL, checked against CDC data

A guest-side voice on Timcast IRL ranked American racial groups by birth rate. The 2024 CDC numbers put that ranking close to backwards.

Verdict: mostly-false, truth score 0.15 — with one component that checks out completely, and does the carrying for the rest.

At 1:24:58 in the August 11, 2026 episode "AOC Says WOKE IS CRAZY, Preps 2028 Run w/ Gavin McInnes," the answer to "are whites in America breeding enough to replace themselves" arrives as a scoreboard: Asians first, whites over Hispanics, whites "way higher" than Black Americans, and a reason — "because they kill all their kids."

CDC/NCHS Births: Final Data for 2024, general fertility rate per 1,000 women aged 15-44: Hispanic 64.3, White 51.5, Black 50.9, American Indian/Alaska Native 46.8, Asian 46.3. The group named as the top of the ranking is at the bottom of it. The Hispanic gap is roughly 25 percent and runs the other way. White over Black is real but is a 1.2 percent near-tie, and two groups sit below Black Americans.

The abortion figure is true. CDC's 2022 surveillance puts non-Hispanic Black women highest at 24.4 per 1,000 women, against 5.7 for non-Hispanic White women — 429 abortions per 1,000 live births versus 106. The strongest version of the argument follows from there: add those pregnancies back and Black fertility would exceed White fertility. That conditional survives contact with the data. The causal clause does not — Guttmacher and academic reviewers attribute the gap to unintended-pregnancy rates downstream of contraceptive cost, coverage, and access.

We also note what we can't settle: who exactly is speaking (our transcript diarizes S4, not a name), and whether total fertility rate and general fertility rate order White and Black Americans the same way right now.